I bought the cards on a Saturday and the seller sent me a picture of the envelope the same day saying "In the mail.", so I expected the package by mid-week. Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, Saturday...nothing. I messaged the seller asking him when he sent the package. he said he sent it on Monday, but because of the winter storms it might have been delayed. It got here the next Tuesday. Okay, no big deal. Just don't tell me it's in the mail, if it's not in the mail.
When it arrived I found the three cards in top loaders, but only two in penny sleeves. The seller had taped them together using Scotch tape, but only on the sides, so one of the cards was sliding out of the top loader. The cards weren't in great shape to begin with, but come on!
Luckily the cards didn't seem to have any damage from shipping. Like I said, they weren't in great shape to begin with, but for vintage I'm okay with that.
Here's the card that was half an inch out of the top loader, not in a penny sleeve when it arrived. It's a 1975 Topps '74 Highlights card featuring Hank Aaron. It's card #1 and chronicles April 8, 1974 when Aaron broke the all-time home run record.
Hank would finish his career with 755 home runs. A number that I know by heart. The current home run record is 762. I had to look that up. Anyone out there think anyone will ever break that record? Pujols, at 38 years old has 633 homers going into this season. He needs 130 home runs to break the record. Over the past 3 seasons Pujols has averaged 24 home runs. This means he would need to play another 5 and a half seasons at the same home run pace to break the record. I don't see that happening.
Miguel Cabrera is the next highest active player on the all-time home run list. He's 35 with 465 home runs currently. No way he breaks the record. He may not even reach 500.
Edwin Encarnacion is the next highest active player on the list with 380. That was surprising.
Giancarlo Stanton has gotten a lot of talk as the guy who might be able to break the record, but most of this took place during or right after the 2017 season when he hit 59 home runs. Last year he hit 38 home runs. He's 29 years old with 305 career homers. He would need to average 30 home runs for the next 15 seasons to break the record. Is it possible...yes. Likely, No.
What do you think? Is anyone currently playing going to break the home run record?
Sadaharu Oh broke the record with 868 dingers.
ReplyDeleteAs far as active players go, I can't really think of too many. For the same reason I don't see anyone challenging any of the hit records, all of the good hitters walk too much now (which isn't a bad thing since pitchers are way better now than they were before).
Sorry to hear about the poor packaging. It's always surprising that there are people out there who still don't know how to package cards correctly. Maybe the person you bought the cards from is new to the hobby or they're a non-collector who is trying to flip a collection they inherited.
ReplyDeleteAs for your question... if I were a betting man, I'd say no. At least not with this current generation of players. However... who knows. The game is always changing.
i don't think anyone playing now will get close. many of them are on the downside of there careers. idon't know if any future players will come close. careers aren't as long.the money is so good now they don't have to play as long .i hope someone gets close down the road . it would of course be great for the game.
ReplyDeleteJuan Soto. Only 740 more to go...
ReplyDelete