Sunday, August 27, 2017

The Future of the 500 HR Club

Here's a look at the active career MLB home run leaders as of right now. Pictured are the top 24 and the list is the top 50.

Let's look at the top 5.

1. Albert Pujols - Pujols joined the 600 HR Club this season and is currently 8th on the all-time list. He will likely pass Jim Thome this season and maybe Griffey next year. Not sure if he has enough left in his tank to pass Mays at 660 and make it into the top 5 all-time.

2. Adrian Beltre - Beltre has only played in 76 games this season, but he did join the 3000 Hit Club earlier this year. With just 16 home runs at this point of the season Beltre will likely end 35+ home runs shy of 500. This would likely mean 2 more decent seasons for the aging slugger to reach the 500 mark.

3. Miguel Cabrera - Cabrera is currently only 1 homer behind Beltre and is 4 years younger, so he certainly has better odds of joining the 500 Home Run Club before he ends up calling it quits.

4. Carlos Beltran - Beltran has been riddled with injuries throughout his long career. If he'd remained healthy, it's likely that he'd already reached 500 home runs. In 9 of his 20 seasons, Carlos has been limited to less than 100 games. At age 40, it doesn't look like Beltran will make it.

5. Ryan Howard - Howard became a free agent after the 2016 season and signed with the Braves and spent some time in the minors before being released in May. It wasn't until just two weeks ago that Howard signed another minor league deal with the Rockies. Howard may never play in the big leagues again. The fastest player to reach the 100 and 200 home run mark will likely not reach 400.

Taking a look at the rest of the list there are only 4 players in their 20's. Giancarlo Stanton has 257 homers and is just 27 years old. Justin Upton is at 249, but at 29 he's two years older than Stanton. Mike Trout is the youngest player in the top 50. At just 25 years of age he has hit 194 home runs. 

The fourth player on the list, still in his twenties is Paul Goldschmidt. He's 29 and currently has 170 home runs. Goldy spent 3 years in college before being drafted in the 8th round by the Diamondbacks, so while he and Justin Upton are the same age, Goldschmidt has 2 less big league seasons under his belt.

Nick, a fellow dime box junkie, recently sent me this 2016 Topps Update 500 HR Futures Club medallion card.

Do I think Goldschmidt will ever reach the 500 HR mark? Hard to say. He would need 11 more seasons of 30 home runs to reach that number. That would put him at 40 years old. Now it's possible that if he has multiple seasons of more than 30, then it could only take 8-10 more seasons. So, it's possible if he can remain healthy.

Nick sent three other Goldschmidt cards. I needed two of them; the 2016 Donruss and the 2014 Gypsy Queen mini.

Nick didn't stop there. He sent me a great assortment of cards including a bunch more D-Backs, a six pack of Griffeys, and a pair of Cards Featuring Awards

I have found memories of reviewing the Hot and Cold lists in Beckett each month. Here are a couple of visually appealing opposites of great D-Backs pitchers.

I've seen this A.J. Pollock Stadium Club card multiple times, but it wasn't until now that I noticed the cast. The photo is from Opening Day 2016, just days after Pollock fractured his elbow.

A card featuring a pitcher at the plate is a rare occurrence.

But a card showcasing a pitcher on the base paths is even harder to come by.

This Drew Fie auto doubles as a donut card which is another one of my mini collections!

Griffey was my first cardboard love. I really need to focus more on my Griffey collection. At least put together a comprehensive list of what I have.

I wonder if this 1998 Score card features "Trey", Griffey's son. Trey was drafter by the Mariners in 2016, during the 24th round as a tribute to Griffey's number when he was with the Mariners.

Instead of baseball though, Trey choose football. He played college ball at U of A. While not drafted into the NFL, he singed with the Colts earlier this year before being released and just recently signed with the Miami Dolphins. We'll see if he makes the roster.

Nick added to another one of my mini collections with these two Phillies cards.

Both cards are great, but this Scott Rolen card is just fantastic! I think it's my first card to feature the Gold Glove award. 

Nick, thank you so much for all the great cards!


  1. I would think that Jay Bruce has an outside shot at 500 - he's very consistent year to year. Stanton and Trout are probably going to have numbers like Miguel Cabrera has now, it's so hard to predict something like 500 homers when not many active players have hit 300 so far.

    Nick always finds great stuff!

  2. I can't picture most of these guys playing long enough to reach the plateau. Stanton seems like a no doubter because of that long term contract, but the injuries are concerning. Miggy has even shown that he's vulnerable to aging, but I think he makes it. I can see Nolan Arenado doing it too. That's it though.

  3. I'm really, really pulling for Beltre and Cabrera to reach 500. I won't bother saying who else I'm pulling for... b/c it's too early in their careers and I don't want to jinx anyone.